Mobile Handset Forecast by Region (Long Term) Mar 2022
Mar 15, 2022
Author : Team Counterpoint
When forecasting the smartphone market, we aim for a balanced forecast. This is where there is a roughly equal probability that the next change we make to the market size will be either up or down. Through many years of forecasting this market, we have observed that rarely all of the bad things that can possibly happen, do happen. Similarly, rarely all of the positive things that can happen do happen. Typically we see a pattern of some good and some bad things. In the current environment, it can be hard to find the positives, but they are out there. Looking into 2022, the market remains volatile. There are several factors that are likely to continue to weigh on the market. We will therefore be updating the headline forecast more frequently as we come to better understand the full ramifications of further blows to stable market conditions that we had come to expect in the period pre-2020.
The global smartphone market in 2021 was 1,392 m units, an annual growth rate of 4.5%.. Despite pent-up demand for smartphones, 2021 was still lower than expected growth rate, mainly due to a re-emergence of COVID-19 mutations, a shortage of key semiconductor components and a continued sluggishness in the China market.
Among the clear and concerning factors likely to influence the market in 2022, we consider the following to be most critical factors in 2022:;
- The continued impact on smartphone OEMs due to the shortage of some components.
- The impact of the omicron (and potentially other) variants and the response of governments – especially China – as they deal with fast-moving outbreaks. .
- The spread of market uncertainty caused by the Ukraine-Russia crisis.
- Global financial pressures including inflation, and possibly recession.
- China has not recovered to the same level it was pre-pandemic. We must determine the new base level for China’s smartphone market.
Published Date: March 2022