* This report complements the Excel based Mobile Device Forecast based on Q1 2014 results.
Counterpoint’s Market Outlook provides short and long range forecasts of the total addressable market size in both volume and value. In this report we provide vendor level shares, by quarter for 2014 and 2015. The basis for the forecast is the actual performance achieved by the various handset vendors through 1Q 2014. The metric is volume of product sold in to the channels, which does not necessarily equal the volume purchased by the final consumer. We then project forward based on a mix of trend analysis, portfolio analysis – based on announced and expected product launches, and other market intelligence we gather in our broader analysis of the handset market. This report can be read in conjunction with our excel-based analysis.
The Market – Headwinds to come
2014 and 2015 will likely represent a significant shift in the development of the mobile handset market. Fast growth markets are starting to saturate – though there is still growth to come. The dramatic migration from feature phones to smartphones, which has largely run its course in developed markets, will continue to drive smartphone volumes across the next 18 months. But even smartphone growth is starting to moderate. Where 2013 represented over 40% year on year growth in smartphones. 2014 will be nearer 20% year on year growth, while we expect 2015 to be around 15% larger than 2014.
Given the fast decline in feature phone sales, the overall market will likely record a tepid low single digit growth rate of just 3% in 2014 and the same in 2015...